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Comet C/2013 A1 -- very close approach to Mars

J

Jon Kirwan

Jan 1, 1970
0
Just discovered January 3rd, 2013, there is a finite
probability of a collision of a large Oort cloud object with
Mars on October 19, 2014. It's coming through the orbital
plane from a steeper angle than Pluto, but looks as though it
will come surprisingly close (or possibly hit) Mars. The
object size is unknown at this point, but estimates place the
size anywhere from perhaps as little as 10km to as much as
50km in diameter. (Absolute magnitude is 10.3.) In short --
big. Because it is retrograde, the estimated approach
velocity to Mars is significant -- perhaps more than 56 km/s.

Interesting reports on current orbital elements as they
develop are found below The first link is the initial
announcement and the 2nd link was updated today with new
observations and a refined set of elements. The original
estimate put it to a distance of 703 microAU from Mars'
surface. Today's estimate adjusts this to about 249 microAU
from Mars' surface.

http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/25/comet-c2013-a1-siding-spring-a-possible-collision-with-mars/
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/27/new-data-concerning-the-close-approach-of-comet-c2013-a1-to-mars/

Decent orbital simulation using earlier orbital parameters
follows:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2013 A1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#orb

You can change your perspectives on it, which is nice. That
simulation places it about 703 microAU from Mars, per the
earlier orbital elements.

Worth a look.

A blog on the topic:
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/showthread.php?p=950707

Jon
 
G

George Herold

Jan 1, 1970
0
Just discovered January 3rd, 2013, there is a finite
probability of a collision of a large Oort cloud object with
Mars on October 19, 2014. It's coming through the orbital
plane from a steeper angle than Pluto, but looks as though it
will come surprisingly close (or possibly hit) Mars. The
object size is unknown at this point, but estimates place the
size anywhere from perhaps as little as 10km to as much as
50km in diameter. (Absolute magnitude is 10.3.) In short --
big. Because it is retrograde, the estimated approach
velocity to Mars is significant -- perhaps more than 56 km/s.

Interesting reports on current orbital elements as they
develop are found below The first link is the initial
announcement and the 2nd link was updated today with new
observations and a refined set of elements. The original
estimate put it to a distance of 703 microAU from Mars'
surface. Today's estimate adjusts this to about 249 microAU
from Mars' surface.

http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/25/c...013/02/27/new-data-concerning-the-close-appro...

Decent orbital simulation using earlier orbital parameters
follows:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2013 A1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0...

You can change your perspectives on it, which is nice. That
simulation places it about 703 microAU from Mars, per the
earlier orbital elements.

Worth a look.

A blog on the topic:http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/showthread.php?p=950707

Jon

Neat!
Thanks,

George H.
 
J

josephkk

Jan 1, 1970
0
Just discovered January 3rd, 2013, there is a finite
probability of a collision of a large Oort cloud object with
Mars on October 19, 2014. It's coming through the orbital
plane from a steeper angle than Pluto, but looks as though it
will come surprisingly close (or possibly hit) Mars. The
object size is unknown at this point, but estimates place the
size anywhere from perhaps as little as 10km to as much as
50km in diameter. (Absolute magnitude is 10.3.) In short --
big. Because it is retrograde, the estimated approach
velocity to Mars is significant -- perhaps more than 56 km/s.

Interesting reports on current orbital elements as they
develop are found below The first link is the initial
announcement and the 2nd link was updated today with new
observations and a refined set of elements. The original
estimate put it to a distance of 703 microAU from Mars'
surface. Today's estimate adjusts this to about 249 microAU
from Mars' surface.

http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/25/comet-c2013-a1-siding-spring-a-possible-collision-with-mars/
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/27/new-data-concerning-the-close-approach-of-comet-c2013-a1-to-mars/

Decent orbital simulation using earlier orbital parameters
follows:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2013 A1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#orb

You can change your perspectives on it, which is nice. That
simulation places it about 703 microAU from Mars, per the
earlier orbital elements.

Worth a look.

A blog on the topic:
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/showthread.php?p=950707

Jon

Let's get the word out. This is a serious close approach event. It may
not get close to earth but it may make for some fun comet watching.

?-)
 
J

Jon Kirwan

Jan 1, 1970
0
Let's get the word out. This is a serious close approach event. It may
not get close to earth but it may make for some fun comet watching.

?-)

Yesterday's new measurements put it slightly further away
from Mars, at perhaps 459 microAU. More to come each day, I
suppose.

The comet will be less than .9 AU from Earth about two months
before it encounters Mars, but in the southern hemisphere and
about 1.6AU from the sun at that time, I think. By the time
it passes by Mars (which is also just about it's closest
approach to the sun, as well, at about 1.4 AU), it will be
more than 1.6 AU away from us and proceeding rapidly away
from us after that. Unfortunately for us in the northern
hemisphere, as it gets really close to the sun and nears
Mars, Earth's tilt will be such that the northern hemisphere
is tilting almost directly away.

I'm hoping it is very interesting to see, just the same.

Jon
 
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