J
Jon Kirwan
- Jan 1, 1970
- 0
Just discovered January 3rd, 2013, there is a finite
probability of a collision of a large Oort cloud object with
Mars on October 19, 2014. It's coming through the orbital
plane from a steeper angle than Pluto, but looks as though it
will come surprisingly close (or possibly hit) Mars. The
object size is unknown at this point, but estimates place the
size anywhere from perhaps as little as 10km to as much as
50km in diameter. (Absolute magnitude is 10.3.) In short --
big. Because it is retrograde, the estimated approach
velocity to Mars is significant -- perhaps more than 56 km/s.
Interesting reports on current orbital elements as they
develop are found below The first link is the initial
announcement and the 2nd link was updated today with new
observations and a refined set of elements. The original
estimate put it to a distance of 703 microAU from Mars'
surface. Today's estimate adjusts this to about 249 microAU
from Mars' surface.
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/25/comet-c2013-a1-siding-spring-a-possible-collision-with-mars/
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/27/new-data-concerning-the-close-approach-of-comet-c2013-a1-to-mars/
Decent orbital simulation using earlier orbital parameters
follows:
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2013 A1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#orb
You can change your perspectives on it, which is nice. That
simulation places it about 703 microAU from Mars, per the
earlier orbital elements.
Worth a look.
A blog on the topic:
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/showthread.php?p=950707
Jon
probability of a collision of a large Oort cloud object with
Mars on October 19, 2014. It's coming through the orbital
plane from a steeper angle than Pluto, but looks as though it
will come surprisingly close (or possibly hit) Mars. The
object size is unknown at this point, but estimates place the
size anywhere from perhaps as little as 10km to as much as
50km in diameter. (Absolute magnitude is 10.3.) In short --
big. Because it is retrograde, the estimated approach
velocity to Mars is significant -- perhaps more than 56 km/s.
Interesting reports on current orbital elements as they
develop are found below The first link is the initial
announcement and the 2nd link was updated today with new
observations and a refined set of elements. The original
estimate put it to a distance of 703 microAU from Mars'
surface. Today's estimate adjusts this to about 249 microAU
from Mars' surface.
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/25/comet-c2013-a1-siding-spring-a-possible-collision-with-mars/
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/27/new-data-concerning-the-close-approach-of-comet-c2013-a1-to-mars/
Decent orbital simulation using earlier orbital parameters
follows:
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2013 A1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#orb
You can change your perspectives on it, which is nice. That
simulation places it about 703 microAU from Mars, per the
earlier orbital elements.
Worth a look.
A blog on the topic:
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/showthread.php?p=950707
Jon