- Jan 1, 1970
Dirk Bruere at NeoPax:
So what? Before they could even think to reach the US per capita income it
will take decades. But it won't happen, unless, as probable, the US incomes
are going to go below the present ones.
Remember that China's miracle is not a miracle at all, it happened, just to
mention few, in England, during the Industrial revolution, In Italy right
after WW2, in Japan in the 70es, in Spain at the end of the century.
It's just the enormous amount of work that peasants are used to do for
barely survive applied to factories. But China is rapidly depleting his
reservoir of desperates, so the wages are due to rise and efficiency
decrease, maybe even before five years.
Beijing's economic plan is to urbanize an additional 400,000,000
people by 2030... that's an extra 20 MILLION people every year that
are going to need white/blue collar jobs. It's almost like immigration
from another country... but at an absolute rate of about 10x the total
of legal and estimated illegal immgration to the US. I don't think
they will run short of peasants looking for better wages in the cities
in my lifetime, though the quality will likely decrease and wages will
likely increase (perhaps not in a straight line).