This is for raising the entire mass of the oceans by an average of 2
degrees. It assumes that the surface temperature will maintain a .035
degree C per year rise after 1979 and that the thermal mass of the oceans
forms a first order lowpass filter with a time constant of 270 years as
calculated or "calculated" above.
I did not actually calculate but only estimated the time needed for the
output of a first order 270-year-time-constant filter to increase by 2
units after the start of a .035 unit per year ramp signal. Now I tried a
simple computer model for this, and get 197 years - the year 2176.
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Now for another scenario:
http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/Water/temp.html
shows the ocean being divided into 3 main layers - the surface layer,
the thermocline and the deep ocean.
The deep ocean largely has a temperature really close to that of maximum
density of water. I suspect this may be largely regulated, by being fed
water from whatever locations of the upper layers that have this
temperature.
If the temperature of the deep ocean is regulated, then ocean warming
will be largely confined to the upper layers. As an oversimplification, I
will take the depth of the region that warms to be the surface layer and
half the thermocline - 600 meters.
Using a 600 meter depth instead of a 3710 meter depth, the thermal time
constant shortens from 270 years to 44 years. With input signal of a .035
degree per year ramp starting in 1979, my simple computer model projects a
2 degree rise 97 years from 1979, or in 2075.
The above page says that the average temperature of the surface layer is
17 degrees C. The volume thermal expansion coefficient of water is about
.00017 per degree C. The average over the range of temperatures of ocean
water appears to me a bit less, maybe .00015 per degree C.
So when the top 600 meters has warmed up by 2 degrees C, it would expand
by about .03%, or .18 meter.
- Don Klipstein (
[email protected])