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The corona. What's the latest?

poor mystic

Apr 8, 2011
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Hi guys :) big smiles, hearts, etc
I'm scared. My world is looking a bit out-of-control. Its mostly got to do with social disruption in the context of current events, in turn mostly coronavirus.
I'm concerned about possible major disruption to trade, so my personal response must include hedges against famine. I'm working my vege garden hard, with new soil and spuds and it's not enough yet.
However there's still a lot of debate about what is actually going on. Here's an article from a rather short-spoken Swiss scientist saying some things I like the sound of.
https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809
 

(*steve*)

¡sǝpodᴉʇuɐ ǝɥʇ ɹɐǝɥd
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I would not put a lot of faith in that article.
 

shrtrnd

Jan 15, 2010
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*steve*s got the most information on this, I'd check his previous posts here for advice.
I'm in Arizona, one of the terrible 'spike' States in the colonies.
My opinion is at odds with conventional wisdom, I'm just an observer, but not being invested in this professionally or emotionally,
this is what I observe:
Covid-19 is a bad virus to get for vulnerable people, but the biggest problem I see is people's reaction to fear of it.
We have test kits out the wazzo now, and everybody is getting tested, hence the spike in people known to be exposed.
We are NOT seeing some radical increase in deaths due to vast increases in reported positive tests.
If you're medically vulnerable, you are at risk of severe complications.
The virus is out there, and no matter what anybody does about it, it's loose, and will remain loose forever.
My uninformed opinion is that people should do what they can in personal hygiene, remember that older people and those
with compromised immune systems are extra susceptible to this, and should be protected whenever possible from exposure.
My uninformed opinion is also that the media goes wild for sensational reporting involving death, and if you want to be less scared,
avoid excessive exposure to the media.
Sure, our world is being turned on it's head, people are frightened and darned near everything we did and places we went to are
closed or implementing policies that they think are going to prevent exposure to the virus. Hopefully, a lot of it might be working.
(You'd never know it by the reporting of positive tests increasing, but nobody is balancing that against the actual number of deaths resulting from it).
My uniformed summary here is, we're finding out a heck of a lot of people are already exposed to Covid-19, and it's spreading.
Older and medically vulnerable people are most at risk of death when exposed to it. The media is going to hype this for as long as it gets them attention, and they thrive on that attention. As long as people are frightened, our world is going to be disrupted.
Do what you can in personal cleanliness and try to avoid unnecessary exposure to others.
*steve* might have specific tips for us, this is just my opinion.
Still alive (so far) in 'spiking' Arizona. ps, Nbody I know has died from Covid complications yet, but maybe I'm just lucky.
 

(*steve*)

¡sǝpodᴉʇuɐ ǝɥʇ ɹɐǝɥd
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There has been a lot learned since the time when NY had it's spike. This has lead to better outcomes in many cases, however this can still be a really devastating illness.

If you're interested, look up "medcram" on YouTube. Along with information I've received from my day job, this has been really informative. Where I am, the new cases have fallen to zero, however there are still a handful of very sick people in our health system.

Even in the beginning, deaths lagged infections by a couple of weeks, and with better knowledge, the lag may now be greater.

What you should really be alarmed about is the positive rate of tests. The idea of widespread testing is that you can spot places with outbreaks early, and deal with them. Another state in Australia that is having a second wave is shutting down apartment blocks and maybe suburbs rather than the entire state. Other states have blocked movement between that state and theirs.

This more localized shutting down is possible because the overall positive rate is low (in our state, for the general public, it peaked at well under 1%). And we remained significantly shut down for 2 months.

In the US, the recommendation is to halt reopening if the positive rate exceeds 5% (which is still a really scary high number). However you are seeing positive rates exceeding 20% with little consideration (apparently) of reversing or even slowing the reopening process.

Many of the newer cases in Florida (and this is not limited to Florida) were initially younger people, primarily because these were the people more likely to go to the types of reopened entertainment venues that have the most crowded conditions. It may also be because older and more compromised people tended to take more precautions.

The death rate from COVID-19 is lower in younger people, however I have heard that more older patients are now presenting in Florida. I'm not sure how reliable this is, however it is certain that health workers in Florida are suffering increased infection rates (similarly to what happened in NY).

In contrast to @shrtrnd I don't think that the reporting coming out of the US is particularly sensationalist (but I'm only seeing stuff from CNN and MSNBC, etc). However, I do agree with his advice regarding hygiene and keeping the more vulnerable safe.

One of my friends was tasked with setting up the COVID clinics in my state. She related to me about the stress for people in the front line, and as the person also responsible for dealing with consumable PPE also needed to deal with dwindling supplies. My state never ran out of PPE, however some disposable PPE that could be cleaned (e.g. face shields) were cleaned and reused.

To get an idea of what it was like, when she went into the clinic area, she would first remove her clothes and don scrubs, then she would go into a sterile area where she would put on masks, gloves, goggles, face shields, and neck to knee, long sleeved disposable outer wear. If she needed to go to the toilet, the entire process was reversed, and then repeated. She went through at least 5 full sets of this every day (excluding up to three changes of gloves for each patient, and additional mask changes if they became damp). She also now has a couple of scars on her face where the mass were rubbing.

This is exactly what health care workers would be doing (if they could) in the US. The fact that some single use masks are being reused for days (even discounting the reports of weeks) is clearly an issue.

Unfortunately, the US is currently grouped with Russia and Brazil (and maybe India). Even the UK, recently seen as a basket case, has pulled itself together.
 

Audioguru

Sep 24, 2016
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United States has 10 times the population that Canada has but US has 100 times more Covid-19 infections.
Crowded conditions in religious gatherings, bars and beaches are where the fools are passing the virus around.
 

poor mystic

Apr 8, 2011
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The trouble I'm actually trying to prepare for has to do with trade disruption.
International trade might at any time be hit by extreme weather, war or fear of pandemic, and while that's always been somewhat true, the world just seems ready to go up right now.
I think the virus must eventually get loose, in Australia as everywhere, and is likely to cause general disruption which might persist for some time. .
If a process can go wrong and I know it but don't prepare, it's not Murphy's fault - it's mine.
 

poor mystic

Apr 8, 2011
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So, poor mystic, feeling any better?
What a cool dude you are. Thank you for asking :)
I'm okay <3
The trouble I'm actually trying to prepare for has to do with trade disruption.
International trade might at any time be hit by extreme weather, war or fear of pandemic, and while that's always been somewhat true, the world just seems ready to go up right now.
I think the virus must eventually get loose, in Australia as everywhere, and is likely to cause general disruption which might persist for some time. .
If a process can go wrong and I know it but don't prepare, it's not Murphy's fault - it's mine.
 

shrtrnd

Jan 15, 2010
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I'm like you in that I try to be as self-reliant as I can be. Like I said (which is not conventional wisdom), the biggest problem I see is
fear from people, how they react to what I consider to be hyped media coverage of whatever will garner them attention. There isn't any actual catastrophic event that limits consumer resources (natural disaster or the like), but what people are doing to themselves presently due to fear, is causing the trade disruption you're worried about. Factories and services shut-down or limiting operations, people hoarding products, neighbor suspicious or turning on neighbor who doesn't share their point of view about what's happening.
I used to have a hard time understanding historical records of what happened to societies because people long ago reacted to disasters by turning on one another due to their fears of disease, drought and famine. I find people haven't changed, despite the fact that we all think we live in a more enlightened and technologically advanced era.
I only have my opinion, like you, but mine is that you should do your level best to do what you can to avoid this or any other communicable sickness, and not over-worry yourself into a tizzy about what MIGHT happen later.
History is rife with actual plagues, wars, and the like that wiped-out entire swaths of their populations. This Covid thing is killing maybe 1 or 2 percent of people it infects, and the vast majority of those are medically vulnerable. In this present age of 'one death is too many', that's a media coverage bonanza.
Cross your fingers that trade, products and services suffer minimal distribution disruption during this pandemic, and consider the fact that 'this too, will pass', and the end of the world is not yet at hand. This will last as long as people do what they're doing, do to fear.
 

poor mystic

Apr 8, 2011
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I'll cross my fingers and continue to work my garden; belt & braces engineering has always suited me.
I believe that preparations for hard times ought never be neglected, for crops that might have been essential in the worst case are a delight when society continues to run smoothly, and fresh home grown vegetables provide valuable support for health at all times.
Thank you for your interest and replies :)
 

shrtrnd

Jan 15, 2010
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I'll cross my fingers for all of us during this pandemic.
I appear to be a loner in my reaction to everything, everywhere, that's going on about this.
Historically, this seems to my uninformed self, to be a relatively insignificant event, the death toll so far is
about the same as the 2018 flu epidemic. (And nobody hyped that)
A few decades ago I got the Hong Kong flu. Every muscle and joint in my body was pure agony when I moved.
I was young then, but really believe if I was an old man then, it would have killed me.
The people struck down by Covid suffer greatly, and I wouldn't wish the severe symptoms some suffer from it
on anyone. The more testing that goes on, the more people are found to have been exposed to it, but a great
number of them are asymptomatic, or have manageable symptoms. And I believe as time goes on, just like
the flu, over a long period of time, darned near everyone will be exposed to it.
Every precaution being made now, is to 'slow the spread' of Covid. It's not going to be stopped.
I have high hopes with all the research going on that medicine is going to come up with a shot we can take just
like a yearly flu shot, that will protect the vast majority of the population.
My opinion, but hope we all weather this, and that somebody comes-up with a shot to lessen symptoms.
There is no 'vaccine' for a virus, but I hope we get a shot that'll prevent a repeat of what's happening now.
Good luck with the garden.
 

(*steve*)

¡sǝpodᴉʇuɐ ǝɥʇ ɹɐǝɥd
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I started to do a point by point rebuttal of his article based on what has happened between its publication about 6 weeks ago and now, but there are only so many hours in a day, so please highlight some small part of the article and I'll address it.

I will not suggest that I know more than him about virology, but I will compare his predictions and those of the scientific consensus with what has happened.

All paradigm changing discoveries start with one person or group that disagrees with the consensus, but the predictive power of their models are what moved the consensus. One example is that very early on, covid-19 was thought to be a respiratory disease that placed those with cystic fibrosis at extreme risk. We now know that the actual situation is far more complex.
 

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