Oil Prices

[Ray Hogan]

Hi,
On the back of a perioed of unprecedent oil price increases.
How far more can the customer pay?.
RayH.

 

[Steve Spence]

As much as they feel like charging. Or can get away with. You can make
your own fuel, and not be a hostage.

Biodiesel, WVO, Ethanol, Methane, and Electric are all options.

Steve Spence
Dir., Green Trust, http://www.green-trust.org
Contributing Editor, http://www.off-grid.net
http://www.rebelwolf.com/essn.html

 

[Ray Hogan]

What is the projected value of the Barrel of oil for this time next year?.
RayH.

 

[Herb]

What is the projected value of the Barrel of oil for this time next
year?. RayH.

Any guess would be pure speculation, projections about the price of
barrel of oil two days from now are the equivalent of vaporware. If we
build new refineries, the cost could come down, hurricane interrupts
Gulf oil well production, cost goes up, discover a room temp
superconductor and energy will practically be free! So who knows, and
more important to me, who cares unless you're going to just sit and
worry about it.

Herb

 

[Ray Hogan]

Yes, any projection is just speculation, but there must be a point where
the producer and consumer have reached the optimium value. Some say this is
about $90 a barrel.
Regards.
RayH.

 

[Ray Hogan]

Yes, increasing prices will force some reduction in consumption, but could
the target of the producers is the tax take of goverments and I suppose my
original question is at what price this starts to come ito focus.
RayH.

 

[JoeSixPack]

Any guess would be pure speculation, projections about the price of
barrel of oil two days from now are the equivalent of vaporware. If we
build new refineries, the cost could come down, hurricane interrupts
Gulf oil well production, cost goes up, discover a room temp
superconductor and energy will practically be free! So who knows, and
more important to me, who cares unless you're going to just sit and
worry about it.

Herb

Plenty of people make their living getting paid to make such speculation,
and the consensus appears to be that we are approaching peak oil in the
world market. The US hit peak oil about 1970, when consumption finally
began to exceed supply. Prices skyrocketed, shortages occurred, and we
called it the "energy crisis." In subsequent years, the US found offshore
sources for oil, and for the next 35 years the escalating US demand was met
with oil from other producers around the world.

Now the world demand for oil is starting to approach the world level of
supply. This time there is no second option readily available for buying
more oil. The law of supply and demand dictates that prices go up when
demand exceeds supply. That's what's happening now, and prices will
continue to rise until either demand decreases and/or the supply increases.

 

[Ray Hogan]

So we have reached a cricial stage in the oil endgame. A stage where in
European countries, governments collect a tax take in the mid sixties
percent and where every increase in producer price results in a greater
retunrs. Its like both producer and goverments versus the consumer.

So if we accept that supply is nearing its potential. Who is going to give
way against a background of the producer having only one option. Will
governments reduce their tax take or consumers reduce their consumption.
Regards.
RayH.

 

[JoeSixPack]

So we have reached a cricial stage in the oil endgame. A stage where in
European countries, governments collect a tax take in the mid sixties
percent and where every increase in producer price results in a greater
retunrs. Its like both producer and goverments versus the consumer.

So if we accept that supply is nearing its potential. Who is going to give
way against a background of the producer having only one option. Will
governments reduce their tax take or consumers reduce their consumption.
Regards.
RayH.

The type of remedy being asked for is often a greater subsidy for the
consumer. Such things cost vast amounts of money. Where do governments get
such money but from taxes. In this case, the cure would be the disease.

 

[Hank McCall]

sno wrote:
I keep hearing around 100 dollars.....5 dollar gas....from investors...
next year....no given date....

hope helps...sno

In the "short term" (which may stretch for 10 years) It is a complete
supply vs demand situation. Even the president's release of stored oil
can have only minimal effect. In a slightly longer term, the price
cannot exceed the price of alternate energy supplies. Greed by oil
producers makes us spend more on wind, solar, tidal power sources once
they seem economically attractive.

 

[Ray Hogan]

Hi,
Broke the $70 today or 2$ a Barrel and when you consider 500,000,000 barrels
pre year. Not a bad increase for no increase in costs and you guessed
correct. The costumer will once again carry this cost, but for how long
more.
Regards.
RayH.

 

[JoeSixPack]

In the "short term" (which may stretch for 10 years) It is a complete
supply vs demand situation. Even the president's release of stored oil can
have only minimal effect. In a slightly longer term, the price cannot
exceed the price of alternate energy supplies. Greed by oil producers
makes us spend more on wind, solar, tidal power sources once they seem
economically attractive.

What's your alternative to this "greed?" Some things that have been tried
so far include: marxism, price controls, nationalization, subsidies and
regulation. What has worked better than simple supply-and-demand?

 

[Ray Hogan]

Hi, I do not have an alternative. It just amazes me how the prices just keep
on rising and we the consumer keep on paying both the producer and the tax
revenue which is over twice the price increase.
Somewhere along this line society is going to have to realise that we are in
the oil endgame, but the question is. How and when will this be played out?.
Regards.
RayH.

 

[CL (dnoyeB) Gilbert]

Roger,
You have said, in different words, exactly what I tried to convey.
We will realize at some point that we have to make massive investments
in some other energy source. That will happen when the oil price makes
those sources cheap enough to proceed. But, as you say, it will take
time for that to happen, I agree with you totally. My reference to
"greed" is not to be interpreted as an endorsement of Marxism at all.
The mechanism of demand causing more supply is an appropriate damper of
the oil profiteering.
Hank

Demand is not causing more supply. Already our gas producing facilities
are maxed out. We have oil reserves in US and are not having a supply
of oil issue. We have a supply of gas issue. They are making no moves
to create more refineries either.

Oil cant be asked to compete with itself. Im not too against the price
increases. It should drive the technologies we have needed for a long
time, and eventually grow new markets. However, unfortunately this
means the price of fuel in those markets will be _higher_ than the price
of fuel in general today, no less...




--
Respectfully,


CL Gilbert

"Verily, verily, I say unto you, He that entereth not by the door() into
the sheepfold{}, but climbeth up some other *way, the same is a thief
and a robber."

GnuPG Key Fingerprint:
82A6 8893 C2A1 F64E A9AD 19AE 55B2 4CD7 80D2 0A2D

 

[Hank McCall]

Demand is not causing more supply. Already our gas producing facilities
are maxed out. We have oil reserves in US and are not having a supply
of oil issue. We have a supply of gas issue. They are making no moves
to create more refineries either.

Oil cant be asked to compete with itself. Im not too against the price
increases. It should drive the technologies we have needed for a long
time, and eventually grow new markets. However, unfortunately this
means the price of fuel in those markets will be _higher_ than the price
of fuel in general today, no less...

Demand does increase supply!! For example there is oil shale in
abundance in the US but it is too costly now to mine it. It is entirely
possible that if a major effort were made in this area, a cheaper method
of extraction could be found and offer a lower priced alternative to
foreign oil. We need incentive like a ready market) to get investors to
risk big sums of money. Going back to my original post, if factories
and homes were to utilize alternate fuels (solar, wind, tidal,
geothermal etc.), the relatively small (despite all the hype) amount of
gasoline used by autos, trucks that need a readily available portable
energy supply would not be a problem.
Hank McCall

 

[JoeSixPack]

I remember when oil was still about $120 about 4~5 years ago. People then
were still complaining, but the question was posed of why the US oil
companies were not drilling for oil to help ease the high price of
gasoline.

That's rich. The whole purpose of oil cartels is to limit supply to boost
prices.

The response was that the cost of gasoline was too low to consider the
exploration of more oil in the mainland US. There is still plenty.
Now here we are at almost $3 a gallon. Now there is no more excuses.

These are golden times for the oil industry. They are benefitting from both
peak prices and peak production. This gravy train will continue until
supplies dwindle to the point where a combination of high production costs
and low sales volume will kill the profit margin.

 

[Ray Hogan]

Hi,
This is missing the point. Fossil fuels are not an finite source. We are in
the endgame.
Watch the power players.
RayH.

 

[Ray Hogan]

Hi,
Yes, it is a finite source, but the truth of where we are in this time
timeframe is the issue and how this will be played out.
Regards.
RayH


10

 

[Mark & Mary Ann Weiss]

I keep hearing around 100 dollars.....5 dollar gas....from investors...
next year....no given date....

hope helps...sno

I predicted $7/gallon in 2007, but it seems we have $6.42/gallon today in
Atlanta, GA and many stations out of gas, long lines stretching for a block
or more to the ones that still have gas, two-gallon limited for people in
Alabama and viscinity. This peak was forced upon us early because of the
hurricane damage to 20 oil rigs and the refinery capacity on-shore.
Once we get past $5, the poor will take to the streets in demonstrations,
police will have to guard every gas station, violence will start to erupt in
urban areas, and there will be a sharp increase in joblessness among the
working poor, as they can no longer afford transportation to work in areas
where there is no public transport.
We are in for interesting time. Katrina has bumped the timeline up a couple
of years in one weekend. Gas was $3.79 in NY this afternoon as I was driving
home. It was $2.95 when I left for work early in the morning.


--
Take care,

Mark & Mary Ann Weiss

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-

 

[Ray Hogan]

Hi,
While the tradegy in US has a huge human implication, it should not be
justification for the world oil prices or is the system that finely
balanced.
Regards.
RayH