Joel said:
Understood. I've been led to believe the crux of the problem is... if the
automakers fail, it takes a huge toll on the economy, so your options are
largely some variant of:
1) Let the automakers fail and do nothing... sudden huge increase of
unemployment payments followed, in many cases, by welfare cases. Taxpayers
foot the bill, slowly at first, increasingly over time.
2) Prop up (bail out) the automakers, on the assumption that sooner or later
they'll become competitive, despite some contractual obligations that they
have (many of them with unions) making this a very unlikely prospect.
"very unlikely prospect" ... That's the problem. We bail them out, they
just keep making the same upper management mistakes, and during the next
economic downturn they are back in D.C. passing the hat around.
Taxpayers are hit with a huge bill, immediately.
3) Let the automakers fail and spend some money to try to get workers back
into other jobs (or entirely new jobs) as quickly as possible, via
re-education, tax incentives for new businesses, etc. Somewhat larger
immediate tax bill than scenario #1, but less than #2... and hopefully the
least long-term impact to the economy overall.
I think only the new business model will really work. I've seen too many
"re-education" attempts fizzle. Tons of new wasteful bureaucracy, lots
of money spent, most people still ending up in unemployment. Also, those
"entirely new jobs" just ain't there unless someone creates them. They
can only be created by new business.
Agreed, although it will take some significnat cultural changes -- including
major changes in, e.g., healthcare where, with the present system, if you ever
have a lapse of coverage it becomes nearly impossible to ever get your
"pre-existing conditions" covered again. ...
American culture is probably the best there is when it comes to
self-employment. Our country was built by entrepreneurial minds. When
they came here there was zero in terms of traditional business. They
built it from the ground up.
And yeah, our health care system, if you want to call it "system", is
the pits in that respect.
... Additionally, I think it's easy to
underestimate how many people are out there who really don't have anything
resembling the strong social structure that you find through your friends,
family, and faith.
That needs to be built back up. We've had all that before. Take a look
at records such as the ones on Ellis Island. Many people came here with
nothing. Hardly any money, no relatives, no friends. Yet they made it. I
met a man who arrived here with his wife, one suitcase and about $50. At
the time he passed away they had a house free and clear, several
patents, plus some toys such as a Corvette. All fully paid for because
they were old-school and didn't believe in debt. They also brought kids
through college that weren't their kids. No student loans.
Something I've mentioned before but I will again here... ok, let's have the
automakers fail, and meanwhile institute another CCC-type program: It did a
lot of lasting good and had very strong support with both republicans and
democrats when introduced. The participants had to work hard, but had
somewhere to live, food to eat, and at least a little bit of money to send
back home or wherever until the economy improved. While it does cost the
taxpayers money, of course, hopefully there are still enough "good works" that
most of us can agree are worth doing, particularly when the cost of doing them
is far less than if private contractors were used. (Not surprisingly,
organized labor was the primary opponent of the CCC...)
CCC can work but I have also seen the opposite in other countries. I am
not a particular fan of enterprises run by bureaucrats. Unions are
another matter, they'll fight anything that even remotely cuts into
their turf or fiefdoms.
Sure, but the number of sole propreitors or even two-person partnerships in
this country is probably... <1% of all workers? Getting that up to, say, 10%
in the next decade strikes me as very difficult with our current culture.
I believe it's larger than 1%. But consider the contribution of that
group to society. Taxes, donations etc. Then the percentage is even
larger. And a culture can be worked on, as a people we just need to have
the will to tackle it.
